It appears you have not yet registered with our community. To register please click here...

Go Back [M] > Madshrimps > WebNews
Pace of Moore's Law to Slowdown – Industry Experts. Pace of Moore's Law to Slowdown – Industry Experts.
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Pace of Moore's Law to Slowdown – Industry Experts.
Thread Tools
Old 19th September 2005, 18:05   #1
jmke's Avatar
Join Date: May 2002
Location: 7090/Belgium
Posts: 79,001
jmke has disabled reputation
Default Pace of Moore's Law to Slowdown – Industry Experts.

Forty years after the Moore’s Law was proclaimed by Intel Corp. co-founder Gordon Moore, the law comes under fire of industry experts and executives who cite both technology and economical reasons. Still, while technology just needs some additional research and funds to maintain the pace of doubling the number of transistors per chip at the same cost, from the standpoint of volume manufacturing that may be unnecessary, as the market of semiconductors does not grow fast enough, they say.

Technical Possibility Does Not Mean Economical Feasibility

“The costs per transistor can still be halved every two years, on the condition that a chip maker reaches big volumes and fills its factories. But the total market growth is slowing down, and then it becomes more difficult to fill factories. Volume is ramping slower. I expect some delay (in Moore’s Law), Fred van Roosmalen, general manager for technology partnerships at Philips Semiconductors, is reported to have said according to Reuters news-agency.

“Technically Moore’s Law is still valid, but economically there are issues,” Toshihiko Ono, who is in charge of Fujitsu’s semiconductor operations, is reported to have said at the Reuters Asia Technology and Telecoms summit.

The number of transistors in a chip doubles every 18 to 24 months, whereas the price remains at the same level, according to Moore’s Law. Miniaturization allows makers of chips to increase performance or functionality of their products, adding value to end-users encouraging them to renew their computing devices constantly. However, during the recent years the users have demonstrated slower adoption of new products, which prolonged replacement cycles.

“Good Enough” Phenomenon Arises

A lot of users are satisfied with performance of their equipment and do not get new devices instead.

“Yes, we may hit the ‘good enough’ phenomenon where the race is going to change," said Henri Richard, global sales and marketing chief at microprocessor maker Advanced Micro Devices.

While emerging markets do not allow the growth of personal computer and similar industries to slowdown, the pace that exists today does not encourage a lot of developers to innovate really rapidly, as a state-of-the-art semiconductor facility costs billions of dollars to built and operated, whereas the demand from customers for large-volumes is not guaranteed. Furthermore, complex manufacturing technologies also cost a lot to be developed.

Given that few manufacturers can afford establishing and operating a $2.5 - $4 billion fab that processes 300mm wafers using 90nm or 65nm process technologies smaller semiconductor makers are likely to slowdown the speed of miniaturization. In fact, makers of chips for consumer electronics, which life-cycle lasts for 5 to 7 years, do not necessarily need to shrink die sizes every 18 – 24 months, unless chips for very complex devices, such as game consoles, are taken into consideration.

Technical Problems Still Exist

Another problem for chip designers is current leakage, a process when electricity in one transistor leaks to another transistor, which is not used at the moment. Such process increases power consumption, thermals and limits performance. This forces semiconductor designers and makers to reconsider their plans for shrinking process technologies, as thinner the process brings higher leakage possibilities are.

In the past Gordon Moore himself said that revision of the Law was inevitable, however, he remained optimistic about the Law’s future for the next decade.
jmke is offline   Reply With Quote

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Nvidia declares Moore's law dead jmke WebNews 0 3rd May 2010 15:04
Industry Experts Claim Lithium-Ion Batteries Have Fundamental Flaw jmke WebNews 0 23rd August 2007 09:31
3-D Chips: IBM Moves Moore's Law Into The Third Dimension jmke WebNews 3 16th April 2007 12:29
Moore's Law Staying Strong Through 30nm jmke WebNews 0 20th February 2006 20:47
Intel claims transistor invention will extend Moore's Law jmke WebNews 0 7th December 2005 23:36
Moore's Law lives Sidney WebNews 0 5th November 2005 02:50
VIA Announces Support from Industry Leader for PCI Express Gigabit Ethernet Implement jmke WebNews 0 8th December 2004 13:50
Intel Drives Moore's Law Forward with 65 Nanometer Sidney WebNews 2 30th August 2004 16:43
German Music Industry Wins First Court Case Against Music Pirates Sidney WebNews 0 9th June 2004 00:55
ATI Extends Industry Lead in Integrated Graphics with RADEONTM 9100 PRO IGP jmke WebNews 0 3rd May 2004 13:10

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are Off

All times are GMT +1. The time now is 12:12.

Powered by vBulletin® - Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO