40nm ATI / Nvidia shortage to last whole Q1 10
 

TSMC's 40nm process maturity can simply be described as disastrously bad. According to our sources, yields are currently at around 50 percent, which is catastrophic for a „mature“ and more than a year old process. One could say that TSMC is really immature about its 40 nm yields.


At this time, TSMC should be at 90 percent + yields, but this is simply not happening. The worst part is that nothing will change in early 2010. The shortage will last throughout Q1 2010 and both ATI’s RV870 and Nvidia’s Fermi will be heavily affected to their die size and complexity.

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/16686/34/

I find it to be a remarkable coincidence that the 40nm yields are so low, while at the same time NVidia is seriously lagging on ATI... IT-paranoia, maybe, but still...

Considering the 'fact' that NVidia would in any case release a DX11 card but in April 2010, at the earliest, it seems to me that there's a bit of scheming going on behind the scenes.

Not very likely, why would TSMC intentionally hurt themselves like that?
It's more likely that ATi simply gambled on the fact that the 40nm process is going to be ready at the time they release the hd5xxx series. Kinda like they did with the hd4xxx series and 55nm except that in that case it all came together beautifully.

That's a bit to much conspiracy theory for me.

Consider that TSMC makes less money the less chips that fab... the lower the yields the lower their margins. NVIDIA makes 40nm chips at TSMC for the value segment, and the value segment is the one that sells the most chips. ;)

Also TSMC wouldn't want to lose ATI's business, ATI can (and likely now will I'd expect) switch to Global Founderies for future production.