PC Industry Stares Faces Years Long Recession: Analyst

Ben Reitzes, an analyst with Barclays, slashed his already grim outlook for PC sales, and cautioned that demand for PCs could drop for "years to come." In his report, Reitzes writes "We are lowering our 2012-2016 PC forecasts due to weak macro conditions, confusion around Windows 8, ongoing cannibalization from tablets, and an elongation in replacement cycles," adding "Also, a long-running belief by PC leaders is that emerging markets are destined to reach the 100% PC-penetration rate (per person) that exists today in the U.S., however, we believe that key markets may only reach a fraction of the U.S. penetration rate as consumers now realize a balance between tablets and smart phones – at a far earlier stage in development."

A major factor in declining PC sales could be slow PC replacement rate, "with analysis pointing toward a 1-2 year extension in the replacement rate from 2010-2015 due to income diverted to 'disruptive' mobile products like tablets and smart phones across the globe." Among the companies whose price targets and estimates Reitzes cut are HP and Dell.