Nvidia stocks are 15% down

@ 2007/10/30
We've seen that Nvidia launched one of its best products so far branded as 8800GT but the wall street is concerned about something completely different. In five working days Nvidia dropped from almost $40 to a current $33.59


According to a rather interesting part at Dow Jones Marketwatch article, analyst fear that Nvidia will get some better competition from AMD next year. Well that is what we’ve been talking for a while and ATI is still catching up. ATI did good with RV630 and RV615 chips as it priced them cheaper than anyone expected while we also know that soon to come RV670, ATI’s first 55 nanometre part will also lose versus G92/ Geforce 8800GT in performance but it will sell cheaper.

Comment from Kougar @ 2007/10/31
All the 8800GT reviews are using much newer drivers than from when the x2900XT launched, they have had time to mature. Buying a GPU that can't handle AA/AF in any game is like buying a car without the overdrive gear.

Assuming for a moment that nobody uses AA/AF... the 8800GTX still easily outperformed the x2900XT in that specific test. Which means the 8800GT will do the same, and do so for almost half the price of the x2900XT. To beat Nvidia in a price/performance ratio with their shrunken 55nm card they need to increase performance with higher clocks, and still sell their cards far below $200.

If anything ATI was like Intel in that they tried to play the MHz game to make a grossly inefficient architecture perform up to par. Tejas and R600 have alot in common.
Comment from jmke @ 2007/10/31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutar View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kougar View Post
In Anandtech's tests the only game the x2900XT wasn't completely destroyed was HL2 Episode Two, and that is because no AA/AF was used as far as I can tell.

same situation there Rutar, once you add AA/AF to the mix, Oblivion runs better on the GTS 640
Comment from Rutar @ 2007/10/31
http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=2988&p=20

It is faster here and generally the drivers helped the situation lately.


Would I buy one? No, because of the other drawbacks but it still increases the price pressure.

The mindset that AMDATI are currently locked up is if you can't beat them in performance, lower the price and that is hurting the margins of them and the competitors (Imagine the Intel profits if AMD wouldn't be cutting the prices so much).
Comment from jmke @ 2007/10/31
Kougar pretty much said it all right there
Comment from Kougar @ 2007/10/31
2900XT costs $400, when did it ever undercut the 8800GTS? 320MB sells for under $300, 640mb starts at $300 AMIR.

2900XT didn't win a single benchmark against the 640mb card in The Tech Report, let alone the 8800GT. In Anandtech's tests the only game the x2900XT wasn't completely destroyed was HL2 Episode Two, and that is because no AA/AF was used as far as I can tell.

The x2900 costs more, performs less, burns through more power, and is nosier than the 8800GT... Even shrunk to 55nm ATI will be doing well to get a decent price/performance with it. What possible reason would someone have to want a x2900XT except that they dislike Nvidia or just don't care? Do any ATI card manufacturers even offer a lifetime warranty? A lifetime overclock-to-your-hearts-content warranty?
Comment from Rutar @ 2007/10/30
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmke View Post
what ATI VGA product delivers same performance at lower price, do share!
well, the 2900XT undercut the GTS before the GT came
Comment from jmke @ 2007/10/30
what ATI VGA product delivers same performance at lower price, do share!
Comment from Rutar @ 2007/10/30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sidney View Post
Where does that come from?
well, ATI undercuts them in price for the same performance because that is what AMD has been doing the last year hence there is a price war
Comment from Sidney @ 2007/10/30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutar View Post
not in trouble, just that the profits will suffer
Where does that come from?
Comment from Rutar @ 2007/10/30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sidney View Post
If you think Nvda is in trouble, you might well be missing the point. Give me another stock besides google that performs as well as Nvda.

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=NVDA
not in trouble, just that the profits will suffer
Comment from geoffrey @ 2007/10/30
I wouldn't expect anything else Sid.
Comment from Sidney @ 2007/10/30
If you think Nvda is in trouble, you might well be missing the point. Give me another stock besides google that performs as well as Nvda.

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=NVDA
Comment from Rutar @ 2007/10/30
I see a pricewar coming up for GPUs and that won't be good for the profits if you don't have the huge fab tech and scale advantage intel has in the CPU price war.
Comment from Kougar @ 2007/10/30
Typical... ignore the great product that was just released, and instead punish the stocks pointlessly worrying about the competition that can't do anything about it. By the time AMD gets a new design out Nvidia will already have theirs ready for it.