Investing in Apple is insane@ 2013/01/25
Forbes quoted Kim Forrest, who works for Fort Pitt Capital, and was never particularly happy with the way Apple was going. She never recommended people buy Apple shares when they were surging and is definitely not suggesting that now is a good time to buy them.
Forrest said that while Apple does things very well, she doubts that the company has anywhere to go. For the share price to increase, Apple needs to move into new markets. It needs to get out of its consumer empire and into corporations and developing nations. However, there are no indications that this is happening.
She said that the iPhone and iPad do not improve productivity and the situation is getting to the point for the mobile workforce where the emphasis needs to be on work, not mobile.
In other words, Apple makes shiny toys and while making the workforce mobile is a good idea, a mobile workforce does not need iFart apps.
There had been some expectations that Apple shares would increase after falling after the news that the company revenue had fallen and it expected things to get worse. The rationalisation was that the lower share price would encourage people to invest so that they could make a killing. After all, Apple shares must eventually head towards $1,000 because, er, the pro-Apple press says so.
However, Forrest thinks Apple is "untouchable" from a value standpoint. She said that the price is being held up by the faithful who say that 'this quarter will be different' every single quarter. Microsoft's faithful try the same stuff with their jam tomorrow concepts.
Another risk is investors who want to get out. They will wait for Apple stock to have another rally and then dump their shares.
There are some tech shares Caughey Forrest likes - Intel and IBM.
Intel's stock might have slumped more than 21 percent in the last year because everyone threw them out for being a PC company. But actually the death of the PC comments came from the same types who were suggesting that Apple's mobile vision would rule the roost.
PCs are not going anywhere just yet and with that strong base, any ground Intel picks up in the mobile space should prove significant, she said.
Forrest thinks Intel can move in on ARM's territory as employers start demanding more robust capabilities for devices used by an increasingly mobile workforce.
IBM was the best performer in the Dow Jones industrial average Wednesday thank to Tuesday afternoon's blockbuster earnings report. Forrest said that IBM is an "an excellent operator" and thinks it is shrewdly pursuing new opportunities without losing sight of the benefits of a huge installed base.